The Wrong Question

In the 1990s, a famous American football player named O.J. Simpson was tried for the murder of his wife and her friend. Simpson had admitted to abusing his wife in the past. Despite this, he was acquitted.

During the trial, his defence counsel Alan Dershowitz made an argument that sounds convincing at first: "Only one in a thousand abusive husbands eventually murder their wives." He argued that past abuse shouldn't count as strong evidence of murder.

The flaw in this argument is subtle but devastating. Dershowitz asked the wrong question. He calculated the probability that an abusive husband commits murder. But the relevant question is different: given that a wife was murdered and her husband was abusive, what is the probability that he killed her?

According to analysis of the case, that probability rises to approximately 97%.

This illustrates a crucial principle: when dealing with probability, the hard part is asking the right question.

Rather than revisiting the Simpson case, this series will follow a mother named Vilila and her son Wrinje, who read about a murder in their local newspaper. They will attempt to identify the killer using publicly available information and their understanding of how the world works.