The Will

Wrinje went back to Hyjop's shop. He brought money this time, partly because he felt guilty about the figs he never ate, and partly because Hyjop seemed more willing to talk to paying customers.

Hyjop: The boy detective returns.

Wrinje: I am not a detective. I am just curious.

Hyjop: Same thing, really. Detectives are just curious people with badges.

Wrinje: I wanted to ask about Fliba. You said there was some trouble between her and Glerna recently?

Hyjop leaned against the counter. This was clearly the kind of question he enjoyed.

Hyjop: Well, I do not like to gossip.

Wrinje: That is clearly untrue.

Hyjop: Fine. Fliba had been Glerna's housekeeper for nearly seven years. She was in the old lady's will — Glerna told me herself, said she wanted to leave something for the woman who had taken care of her. But about a week before the murder, Glerna changed the will.

Wrinje: Changed it how?

Hyjop: Removed Fliba entirely. Replaced her with a charity — something to do with birds, I think. Glerna was fond of birds.

Wrinje: Why did she remove Fliba?

Hyjop: Nobody knows for certain. There were rumours that Glerna caught Fliba taking small items from the house — nothing valuable, just trinkets. Glerna was very particular about her things. If it is true, that would be enough to lose her place in the will.

Wrinje: Did Fliba know she had been removed from the will?

Hyjop: Fliba knew everything that happened in that house. She managed Glerna's paperwork, her appointments. She almost certainly knew. In fact, I saw Fliba the day after the will was changed, and she looked furious. She came into the shop, bought a bottle of Grtizki, and did not say a word to me. That is unusual — Fliba always talks.

Wrinje walked home thinking about this. Fliba had been removed from the will. She knew about it. And a week later, Glerna was dead.

Was this evidence?

He thought about Glagalbagal's framework. The question was: how likely is it that Glerna changed her will shortly before the murder if Fliba is the killer? And how likely if Fliba is innocent?

If Fliba killed Glerna, the will change makes a lot of sense. It gives Fliba a motive — she was about to lose what she expected to inherit. The will change is directly connected to a reason for the crime. So the probability of seeing this evidence, given that Fliba is guilty, is high. Maybe not 100% — people kill for other reasons too — but high. Say 70%.

If Fliba is innocent, the will change is just an unfortunate coincidence. Glerna changed her will for personal reasons that have nothing to do with the murder. This could happen — people change their wills all the time. But the timing is suspicious. The probability of seeing a will change the week before a murder, given that the person removed from the will is innocent of the murder, is lower. Maybe 5% — it is a rare coincidence.

The ratio was 70% to 5%. That was 14 to 1. Strong evidence.

Wrinje: Mum, I think the housekeeper might have done it.

Vilila: The housekeeper? What happened to the niece?

Wrinje: The niece might be innocent. Fliba was removed from Glerna's will a week before the murder. She knew about it.

Vilila: That is just gossip from the shopkeeper.

Wrinje: Gossip is information. And this is the kind of information that actually shifts the probability. The motive is much more likely to exist if Fliba is guilty than if she is innocent.

Vilila: You are starting to sound like Glagalbagal.

Wrinje: Good.

Vilila: That was not a compliment.